Many people feel that professional football has gotten fairly easy to predict, making it not as much fun to bet on. However, predictability is not a problem in college football, which still offers the promise of upsets and the unexpected. Many people bet on college football on a weekly basis because it is unpredictable. However, while betting on upsets in college football is rewarding for some, for others, it can lead to big losses for gamers.
There are six ways to try picking winners in college football that may give gamers a chance to collect wins rather than losses. In many cases, looking for heavy favorites that are perhaps ripe for an upset could prove to give gamers the edge they need to score a victory.
Look for a Winning Team that is not Covering the Spread Consistently
Gamers who bet on the underdog look at the betting performance of a particular team in the past games during the season. While this is difficult to accomplish at the beginning of the season, when no team has a tradition of either covering or not covering the spread, this strategy becomes easier after a few games. Football teams who don’t cover spreads are usually heavy fan favorites, which means the line is higher than it needs to be, and the team will have a harder time covering it. This is especially true if the team has a reputation for covering the spread during the year, because it is most likely hiding a specific problem, such as a lack of cover defense.
Teams who Win But Are Consistently Outgained
This is a huge warning flag for sports gamers. If a college team is barely squeaking by with a win when they are consistently being outgained, they are ripe for an upset. This indicates that their offense is not measuring the output of their defense.
The Underdog Gets No Respect
There are times that sports reporters, as well as the public, are all crazy about a team, especially those teams from the five power conferences. As such, sports fans tend to overlook a team from a lesser-known conference, even if they have a stronger record. Appalachian State, for example, not only managed to upset Michigan in 2007, widely regarded as the biggest upset in college football history. They also achieved unexpected victories against LSU, Ohio, and nearly Tennessee, as well as Penn State. All of these teams either lost or nearly lost to this team, which makes them an interesting underdog pick.
….Or the Favorite Gets Too Much
If the favorite is a big-named football team from a Power 5 conference, and the opponent is a team from a lesser-known conference, the tendency is usually to bet the favorite. However, 475 gamers who bet on underdogs are careful and cautious to look at both teams objectively. They understand that by looking at both teams objectively, gamers might find that the underdog is the better bet.
Declining Performance
Gamers who follow a particular part of a team’s performance year after year, point to statistics about offensive or defensive decline of a team as the year progresses. It’s understood that a team’s offensive and defensive productivity declines as the season wears on as players get banged up. However, if a sports gamer carefully watches a team and sees steady declines, they may choose to bet on the opposing team. In addition, any time that a team relies on one player, the more at risk they are of decline.
The Creativity of Plays
While most college teams’ defensive and offensive plays are fairly well known to each other, there are underdog teams who have coaches (either offensive or defensive) who love to try new plays out. These are the teams worth betting on, because new, well-done plays tend to confuse the favorite.
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